Fall Preview — Part 2: Liberal Party of Canada

The second edition of our Summer Recap/Fall Preview series is here! This time we’re taking a deep dive into the current government: The Liberal Party of Canada.

How Did We Get Here?

Coming out of the worst of the pandemic there was good reason to think energy and an increased commitment to public well-being were on the horizon. Unfortunately, that hasn’t really been the case for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Instead, the government has looked lazy, out of touch, and very much like a government that is prepared to close up shop. Facing a litany of critical issues, so far the Liberals haven’t been able to formulate a plan to deal with any of them. While inflation has gone down, grocery prices have continued to rise, gas prices are back up, housing is still unaffordable across the country, the media and opposition parties are still hammering Chinese interference, they’ve lost all credibility on environmental issues after failing to meet climate goals, and while the Bank of Canada chose not to further increase its key interest rate, that option is still firmly on the table. All this is to say that life under the Liberals post-COVID has not been what anyone was hoping for. It should be acknowledged that some of these issues are not the direct fault of this government and solutions for some of these issues fall outside of federal jurisdiction. However, being the government in power means getting credit for all the good and receiving the blame for all the bad and right now their lack of energy towards finding possible solutions or delivering palatable “it’ll be okay”s means they’re only evoking negative responses. One bright idea they had to try and inject life back into themselves was a cabinet shuffle. This shuffle saw competent Ministers like David Lametti, Omar Alghabra, and even the Opposition's favourite lightning rod Marco Menocino removed completely from Cabinet while Anita Anand had her portfolio shifted from National Defence to the Treasury Board. Regardless of what you thought of them as individuals, these were intelligent people that worked diligently to try and better their country and did not deserve to be unceremoniously dumped from cabinet or, in Anand’s case, quietly shuffled out of the public eye. While Karina Gould’s promotion to House leader is a warranted bump for an energetic MP, the fact that she will be leaving for maternity leave in the winter, and likely won’t be back until much closer to the next election, does beg the question “why?”. She would be a much-needed voice in the House of Commons, as she already has been, and now the task of defending and promoting government policy will fall on the shoulders of relatively unproven Steven Mackinnon during a critical time for the Liberals. Marc Miller, the former Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations, had his portfolio shifted to Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship which also appears to be a bit of a head-scratcher seeing as how committed he was to Reconciliation and advancing Indigenous solutions. With all this in mind, what should’ve served as a statement that the Liberals still had gas in the tank and were committed to new, fresh ideas and energy actually created even more doubts about the capacity this government has to continue leading the country. Following the shakeup, the Prime Minister and his new cabinet embarked on a three day retreat in Charlottetown with the focus being on housing and what moves the government can make to try and alleviate the cost of living crisis gripping the nation. Unfortunately, at the end of the retreat, the Prime Minister was unable to announce any concrete measures the government would be taking; another sign that maybe they’re just out of good ideas.  As the House of Commons is set to begin sitting, Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals find themselves with their backs to the wall and serious doubts about their desire to push themselves off it.

The Path Forward

Well, the good news is that it’s not over yet. The bad news is that there don’t seem to be a whole lot of surefire strategies to put the Liberals back in the driver’s seat. The chief problem plaguing the Liberals and the Prime Minister is that there are too many Canadians who associate them with everything that’s gone wrong and that they don’t seem to care about changing that perception. By far, the biggest obstacle Trudeau and the Liberals have to navigate around on the road to a fourth election victory is themselves; they need to stay out of their own way. This means avoiding building up excitement around announcements of old ideas and instead coming up with doable, effective solutions. At the very least, they need to show both the ability and the willingness to communicate with Canadians when they inversely don’t have the right answers. With economic issues like affordability, housing, and jobs at the front of Canadians’ minds, without a competent communication strategy and effective plans to alleviate these issues, the Liberals are gifting Pierre Poilievre and the CPC the perfect angle of attack. While the cabinet shuffle did show that the Liberals aren’t ready to roll over just yet (or at least not ready to admit they’re rolling over), it failed to inspire the much-needed confidence that they do indeed have a plan. While new Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Sean Fraser seems ready to have the spotlight cast on his efforts, the government is still (so far) missing someone who would be capable of crafting an economic plan that would be intriguing and fresh enough to be well received by the majority of Canadians. Chrystia Freeland, unfortunately, has become too closely associated with the controversies this government has been a part of to the point where anything she says or puts on the table, no matter how logical or surefire, will be diminished. My personal choice, and what I think is the boldest move the Liberals can make, is to bring Mark Carney back into Canadian politics and government and hand him the economy portfolio. Carney is an internationally experienced economist who helped Canada effectively manage the impacts of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 and has been working with various financial groups around the world including the Bank of England and the United Nations. He has also built a reputation for advocating for action on climate change and environmental protections. Bringing someone with that kind of experience would do two things the government desperately needs: Firstly, it would alleviate some of the public’s worries that this government is out of touch with Canadians’ economic anxieties and would give the public someone with an economic background that’s new, fresh, and that they can trust. I think the Opposition would also have a tougher time hammering someone like Carney on his reputation than someone like Chrystia Freeland who, warranted or not, has come to have her name directly connected to far too many scandals/controversies this government has faced; Secondly, it gives the Liberals a straightforward path to life after Justin Trudeau. At this stage of the government’s life cycle, it’s fair to ask if Trudeau has it in him not just to win another election, but to lead the country after winning it. His tenure as Prime Minister has seen his marriage end, him being pelted with rocks, and faced the brunt of some truly unprecedented vitriol; I think it’s fair to question whether he feels it’s worth it to continue on. Trudeau has already stated that he plans on staying on for the upcoming election; most likely because Poilievre and his ideas give Trudeau something worth fighting against but who knows what would happen if the Liberals actually win. Perhaps Trudeau would take that victory and step down, paving the way for a new Liberal leader and Prime Minister.

While this edition has been a bit long winded, there’s a lot to say about the government in power. Even as they look lifeless and out of touch, I don’t think it’s smart to count out Justin Trudeau’s ability to campaign and turn things around. The path forward is certainly rocky and non-linear, but it definitely exists. The foremost priority for the Liberals needs to be addressing the economic anxieties Canadians have. That means putting more energy into coming up with policies and plans that will not just solve the problem in the long-term, but also make life easier for Canadians in the short-term. They also need to inject fresh blood into the departments that will be crafting these policies. Yes, that might mean shuffling Chrystia Freeland to a different portfolio and bringing in Carney as a replacement Minister of Finance or it might mean creating an Associate Ministership that would allow Carney and Freeland to handle the portfolio in concert. If the Liberals can preempt the shellacking the Conservatives will almost certainly hand them in the House of Commons over housing and affordability, Poilievre may have to revert back to his “freedom” narrative which will certainly cost him support. With Carney on board the Liberals would also need to have a conversation about leadership. As long as Trudeau wants it, party leadership is his but should the Liberals continue to slide, maybe it would be time for him to consider whether or not he has enough in the tank to lead the party and the government. The Liberals also need to ensure that the next election is not another “shield” election but instead, a “sword” election. They cannot continue to live on the defensive; they must flip the pressure back onto the Conservatives. This doesn’t mean trapping them with “gotcha” moments in the House of Commons or trying to make any minor slip-up by Poilievre into an indictment of his character or ability. This means delivering on promises and passing legislation that’s better than what the CPC is promising. Force Poilievre to deliver concrete promises and policy ideas that are better than yours; force the CPC to actually be a better alternative. If that happens, then Canadians win; and if they can’t become a truly better alternative, then Canadians still win. Good government and good, honest opposition to it produce phenomenal things. Finally, the government needs to stop using policies that would genuinely help Canadians as popularity moves. Comprehensive national dental- and pharma-care plans would help make life affordable for Canadians;so would taking on the grocery giants in an attempt to end shrinkflation and price gouging; so would launching a more aggressive challenge towards Bell and Rogers to stop Canadians from having to pay some of the highest-priced phone bills in the world; so would legislating changes to our oil and gas companies that would require them to be able to process Albertan bitumen. All of these changes would make life better for Canadians and the government, with the support of the NDP, would be able to do them. The real test for the Liberals, is whether they have the engine to.