SUMMER RECAP AND FALL PREVIEW PART 1: THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA

As the summer draws to a close, one question is on every Canadian’s mind: What’s the state of politics in this country? Of course, I’m kidding; many questions are running through everyone’s heads right now. From getting kids ready to go back to school and face Stephen Lecce’s new curriculum guidelines in Ontario, to wildfires across the Northwest Territories and British Columbia, to the housing crisis, to the grocery crisis, to the surge in anti-LGBTQ2+ rhetoric, any of these issues among others would justifiably be at the forefront of Canadians’ minds. However, as fall begins and the House of Commons begins sitting in a few weeks, what better time to take stock of where the different political parties stand and which issues seem to be most affecting them.

This will be a four-part series detailing where the Conservatives, Liberals. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois stand at the end of the summer and their paths forward. To start off, the CPC:

How Did We Get Here?

Hold onto your glasses, folks! Or better yet, don’t! If the “Summer of Pierre” has taught us one thing, it’s that when it comes to campaigning, leave the glasses on the sidelines. Clearly, that’s what’s behind the Conservatives’ huge bump in the polls. Surely there’s no other plausible answer? Maybe, maybe not. While Pierre Poilievre has made a concerted effort to soften his approach to voters, particularly by backing off of vaccine mandates, cryptocurrency, and “freedom” and instead laser-focusing his rhetoric on housing, affordability, and Chinese interference, his growing popularity may be more attributable to an external factor: the Liberals doing a top-notch job of falling flat on their face. Perhaps this marks the trademark shift towards the centre that every Conservative leader has made once they realize they need to appeal to the broader electorate instead of just their core base. However, while the rhetoric has softened, there’s been very little in terms of policy alternatives that Poillievre and the CPC can hang their hats on to differentiate themselves from Trudeau’s Liberals. So far, their only real policy alternative is that Poilievre is not Trudeau. That is a fair point, but perhaps the polls and the media are overstating what a resounding triumph this summer has been for Pierre. For starters, the next election won’t be for another year (barring a stupefying about-face by the NDP or an admission of defeat or severe miscalculation by the Liberals) so there’s plenty of time for voters' minds to change. Secondly, at some point, Poillievre will need to decide whether to break with his base or not. With several conservative Premiers deciding to import and fight U.S.-inspired anti-trans culture wars in schools, at some point, Poilievre will either have to publicly support these actions and maintain the loyalty of his base while ensuring he loses the broader, more moderate electorate or breaks sharply with his supporters and confirms his shift to the centre which may cost him his fervent base. The third possibility is that his public statements will be wordy enough not to give a clear answer either way, allowing voters to maintain plausible deniability should his policies not align with their own. This week should be a key moment as the Conservative convention kicks off in Quebec City, where party members will vote on policies towards gender-affirming care, climate change, “freedom,” and China. The “Summer of Pierre” has coincided with his shelving of ideas related to vaccine mandates, convoys, “freedom,” and other controversial social issues, keeping the public focused on more timely crises like housing and affordability. Should his party convention bring controversy back to the forefront, there’s no guarantee that the CPC’s surging popularity will continue.

The Path Forward:

For Poilievre and the Conservatives, the path forward is relatively straight, and the only real obstacles will be ones they make for themselves. Before I lay out my opinion on where the CPC goes from here, I want to jump ahead to the next election and explain the options for the Tories. I’ll be brief because there's only one option: the Conservatives must win enough seats to form a majority government. If they don’t, they’d be hard-pressed to find a willing partner in a minority. The NDP would demand far too many concessions that would run counter to any CPC platform; the Liberals are likely in the same boat as the NDP, plus they would never back anyone else for Prime Minister besides their own leader; the Bloc Quebecois could do it, but unlikely if the CPC doesn’t provide some concrete protections for abortion and Radio Canada. Thus, a majority government is the only plausible path to governance for the CPC. In the meantime, the path forward for Polievre’s party should look like this: Firstly, stay on the attack. Hammering the Liberals on housing and affordability is a surefire way to drum up support for anyone not wearing red, named Justin Trudeau. Secondly, they can’t underestimate anyone wearing red and named Justin Trudeau. Sure, the Liberals look flatfooted, out of gas, out of touch, and so on and so on, but Trudeau has won three elections and being in government helps because people can see you actually do things and feel their effects. Trudeau and the Liberals may save all their best ammunition for the upcoming year, and the CPC better not be unaware. “Not being Justin Trudeau” will not be a good enough selling point if the Prime Minister actually turns things around and breathes new life into the Canadian government. The CPC needs to produce a polished and well-rounded platform that will galvanize its base into action around real-life crises like housing, cost of living, and climate change while not scaring off moderate, centrist voters with controversial dog whistles. Come up with good policies and force the Liberals to match them or exceed them. The country faces several serious issues, and adequately governing through them will not be easy. Without a sound platform, remaining the Official Opposition may actually be the sweeter gig. Thirdly, whip the caucus into shape. Stephen Harper ran a very tight ship as Prime Minister and had his MPs either backing him or dissenting in private silence. Poilievre must do the same with some of his more eccentric party members. Get everyone on the same page and ensure they keep any differing opinions from leaking to the public. Lastly, don’t be afraid to trade the fringes for the centre. So many people want change for various reasons. All Poilievre has to do is provide a palatable alternative. If that means dropping some of the more socially conservative views and policies, I suggest leaning into that. There is much more support to be found among the moderates and disenchanted leftists than within the fringe far right. As the CPC convention kicks off, stay tuned for updates on any policy promises that come out of it.