Conservative Leadership Race Taking Shape

With a slew of announcements this week about who’s in and who’s out, the leadership race for the Conservative Party of Canada seems to be taking form.

Pierre Poilievre, the MP from Carleton, announced his bid back in early February and has gotten quite the head start on campaigning. This week, conservative commentator and political strategist Tasha Kheriddin announced she would not be running and would instead throw her support behind former Quebec Premier Jean Charest in order to avoid splitting votes. Charest himself officially announced his much-speculated entry into the race on March 9th in a call to the president of the Conservative Party. Patrick Brown, the Mayor of Brampton, has indicated he will be making an announcement on Sunday. This announcement will very likely be either his entry into the leadership race or his declaration of support for Charest. Haldimand-Norfolk MP Leslyn Lewis also announced her leadership bid on March 8th, while Independent York Centre MPP Roman Baber launched his campaign on the 9th. It’s also possible that Wellington-Halton Hills MP Michael Chong or Peter MacKay, the former leader of the Progressive Conservative Party and runner up to Erin O’Toole in 2020, announce a bid in the days ahead. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney have both taken their names out of the running alongside former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall. The last day for candidates to announce their bid is April 19th and the leader will be announced on September 10th.

This leadership race could mark a significant turning point for the federal Conservative party. On one side are candidates like Poilievre, Lewis, and Baber who seem to be fishing for voters from the further right, and on the rother are candidates and potential candidates like Charest and Brown who are more content with solidifying their support base of moderate conservatives and disaffected liberals. Charest has received criticism for his work with Chinese telecom company Huawei and his work at McCarthy Tetrault, a company that provides strategic advice to companies to help them lobby governments. Poilievre gave support to the trucker convoy that occupied Ottawa for almost a month and had aspirations of overthrowing the democratically elected federal government; Lewis has railed against vaccine mandates and vaccinating children, compared the blowback to such opinions as a ‘lynching’ and argued that Canada was going through a ‘socialist coup’. Baber has vehemently spoken out against vaccine mandates and lockdowns at the provincial level which resulted in him being booted from the Conservative caucus by Premier Ford. Still, in a poll published by the National Post and conducted by Leger, Poilievre is the runaway favourite for the leadership vote as it stands with Charest and MacKay rounding out the top three choices among voters. The gap between Poilievre and Charest in the minds of voters is largest in terms of who would be able to beat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the next election (41% for Poilievre vs 14% for Charest vs 27% undecided) and smallest in terms of who would be the best leader (15% for Poilievre vs 12% for Charest vs 55% undecided).

It will definitely be interesting to watch over the next few months who manages to stand out or gain ground on Mr. Poilievre. This may be a seminal moment in the history of the Conservative Party and Canada itself. It seems as though the CPC has a choice to make: do they go for a unified party or a unified country. If the party wants to unify and solidify their base of support among the further right voters while probably being unable to win enough votes to form government, Poilievre seems to be the right choice. If the goal is to form government and build support across the political spectrum, Charest seems to be the best pick. Luckily, it’s not up to me so instead I get to watch from the sidelines and criticize every move of every candidate! Stay tuned for more updates! We will be doing our best to provide updates on where each candidate stands on certain issues.

March 27 UPDATE: Several movers and shakers have made statements surrounding their entry (or non-entry) into the CPC leadership race. Patrick Brown announced earlier in March that he is indeed running for leadership of the CPC which stands to pit him against Jean Charest for the moderate Conservative vote. Michael Chong has announced that he will not enter the race as 'now is not the time'. Former Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill MP Leona Alleslev has also announced her candidacy for leader. The former Liberal crossed the floor to join Andrew Scheer's iteration of the CPC before losing her seat in 2021. Finally, Marc Dalton, the MP for Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, and Scott Aitchison, former mayor of Huntsville and MP for Parry Sound-Muskoka, have both announced their entry into the race.

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